Layer two — exposure vector, eight coefficients
hover for source in filingsLCY revenue share~70% naira
Segment note+ stress
FX asset positionLong USD
Currency risk note− hedge
Trapped cashLow
Cash restrictions note− hedge
Import content of COGSNot applicable
—neutral
Wage baseRepriced Jul 2024
Employment note+ stress
External debtEurobond tranche
Debt note+ stress
Rate sensitivityPositive to MPR
NIM disclosure− hedge
Export shareWest Africa subs
Revenue by destination− hedge
Sign convention matters as much as magnitude — an exporter with hard-currency receivables gains from the same move that destroys an importer.
Layer three — diagnosis
A long dollar book and rate-positive NIM mean the same regime break that damaged importers was accretive here. This is a counterparty and correspondent conversation, not a rescue.
Country signal in force
CPI YoY
34.2%
Policy rate
27.50%
USD/NGN
1,490
Parallel prem.
+18%
Reserves
$36.1b
Sov. spread
912bp
Ranked lead set
3- 01NowCorrespondent and clearing mandate
USD clearing and trade confirmation flow off the enlarged FX book.
TTS FIAnnuity - 02Spread windowLiability management on the Eurobond
Tender or refinance ahead of the spread compression.
DCMLarge - 03OngoingRate hedge distribution
Sell-through of hedges to the bank's own corporate book.
MarketsRecurring
Timing is the product: the pitch is strongest at computable moments — the quarter a coefficient breaches a threshold, and the month the policy window reopens.