Float plus a second devaluation; hard-currency parent debt is the dominant lead source.
Layer one — macro, structured
as of Aug 2026CPI YoY
34.2%
peak, pre-rebasing
Policy rate
27.50%
from 11.50% in 2022
USD/NGN
1,490
was 416
Parallel prem.
+18%
street vs window
Reserves
$36.1b
8.0m import cover
Sov. spread
912bp
over UST
Layer one — regulatory, unstructured
- Jun 2023FX regime float adopted; interbank window opensCBN circular
- Feb 2024Second devaluation; NAFEM methodology resetCBN / FMDQ
- Jul 2024Minimum wage NGN 30,000 to 70,000Federal gazette
- Q4 2024Form M / PAAR documentary regime tightenedCustoms circular
USD/NGN, official windowJan 22 → Sep 25
1,510416.0
Jan 22Sep 25
Indicative monthly path reconstructed for illustration — pin exact fixes to central bank data before client use.
Covered names — by market capitalisation
3 names · drill into a name for its exposure vector| Ticker | Name | Sector | Mkt cap (USD bn) | Net exposure | Status | Leads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DANGCEM | Dangote Cement Plc | Materials | 5.4 | -0.18 | MONITOR | 4 |
| GTCO | Guaranty Trust Holding Co | Financials | 2.0 | +0.21 | WATCH | 3 |
| NESTLE | Nestlé Nigeria Plc | FMCG | 1.1 | -0.62 | ACT ON WINDOW | 6 |