Tüpraş — exposure vector and ranked leads

Layer two — exposure vector, eight coefficients

hover for source in filings

LCY revenue share~65% TRY

Segment note+ stress

Export shareMaterial, USD-linked

Revenue by destination− hedge

Import content of COGSCrude — fully dollarised

Procurement disclosure+ stress

FX-denominated debtMatched to USD margin

Debt note− hedge

Inventory + rcv daysCrude cycle

Working capital schedules+ stress

Trapped cashNone

Cash restrictions note− hedge

Wage baseCollective agreement

Employment note+ stress

Rate sensitivityTRY WC line

Debt note+ stress

Sign convention matters as much as magnitude — an exporter with hard-currency receivables gains from the same move that destroys an importer.

Layer three — diagnosis

A dollarised refining margin against dollarised crude is a natural hedge. Exposure sits in the crude working capital cycle and the TRY funding leg at a 50% policy rate.

Country signal in force

CPI YoY

33.6%

Policy rate

50.00%

USD/TRY

41.2

Parallel prem.

~0%

Reserves

$158b

Sov. spread

255bp

Ranked lead set

01Every cargo cycle
Pre-export / crude financing
Dollar borrowing base against the export receivable stack.
TTS TradeLargest ticket
02Monthly
Commodity hedging
Crack spread and freight hedges around the refining calendar.
MarketsRecurring
03Spread window
Eurobond issuance
Term out at compressed sovereign spreads.
DCMLarge

Timing is the product: the pitch is strongest at computable moments — the quarter a coefficient breaches a threshold, and the month the policy window reopens.