BİM Birleşik Mağazalar — exposure vector and ranked leads

Layer two — exposure vector, eight coefficients

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LCY revenue share~95% TRY

Segment note+ stress

Import content of COGSSelective, FX-linked

MD&A+ stress

FX-denominated debtMinimal

Debt note− hedge

Inventory + rcv daysShort, cash retail

Working capital schedules− hedge

Wage baseMinimum-wage indexed

Employment note+ stress

Export shareMorocco / Egypt subs

Revenue by destination− hedge

Trapped cashSub-level, Egypt

Cash restrictions note+ stress

Rate sensitivityNet cash, positive

Treasury disclosure− hedge

Sign convention matters as much as magnitude — an exporter with hard-currency receivables gains from the same move that destroys an importer.

Layer three — diagnosis

Net cash and short cycle, so the funding stack is not the exposure — the wage base is. Minimum-wage indexation resets opex annually across a very large headcount, and the surplus TRY cash needs to earn the policy rate.

Country signal in force

CPI YoY

33.6%

Policy rate

50.00%

USD/TRY

41.2

Parallel prem.

~0%

Reserves

$158b

Sov. spread

255bp

Ranked lead set

01Now
Liquidity and yield structure
Sweep the surplus TRY balance into the 50% policy rate with same-day access.
TTSAnnuity
02Wage cycle
Payroll and payments mandate
Wage-base repricing across a large headcount, plus supplier payment rails.
TTSAnnuity
03Now
Cross-border sweeps
Release Egypt and Morocco subsidiary balances into the group.
TTSMid
04Quarterly
Import FX forwards
Cover the FX-linked share of the goods basket.
MarketsRecurring

Timing is the product: the pitch is strongest at computable moments — the quarter a coefficient breaches a threshold, and the month the policy window reopens.