Adaro Energy Indonesia — exposure vector and ranked leads

Layer two — exposure vector, eight coefficients

hover for source in filings

LCY revenue shareLow — USD coal sales

Segment note− hedge

Export shareDominant, Asia buyers

Revenue by destination− hedge

Trapped cashHigh — retention rules

Cash restrictions note+ stress

FX-denominated debtUSD facilities

Debt noteneutral

Import content of COGSFuel and equipment

Procurement disclosure+ stress

Inventory + rcv daysShort, cargo-linked

Working capital schedules− hedge

Wage baseRegional minimum wage

Employment note+ stress

Intercompany vs externalSubsidiary chain

Related-party noteneutral

Sign convention matters as much as magnitude — an exporter with hard-currency receivables gains from the same move that destroys an importer.

Layer three — diagnosis

Dollar revenue with a rupiah cost base is a natural hedge, but 100% export-proceeds retention for twelve months converts that revenue into onshore restricted cash. The lead is liquidity structure, not hedging.

Country signal in force

CPI YoY

2.7%

Policy rate

5.25%

USD/IDR

16,450

Parallel prem.

n/a

Reserves

$150b

Sov. spread

88bp

Ranked lead set

01Every cargo
Onshore retention account structure
Compliant DHE SDA accounts with yield and permitted-use drawdown.
TTSAnnuity
02Now
Working capital against restricted balances
Onshore facility collateralised by retained proceeds.
BankingLarge
03Mandate deadline
Downstreaming capex financing
Fund the smelter and processing mandate.
Banking / ECALargest ticket
04Monthly
IDR/USD hedging
Cover the rupiah cost leg against dollar receipts.
MarketsRecurring

Timing is the product: the pitch is strongest at computable moments — the quarter a coefficient breaches a threshold, and the month the policy window reopens.