Layer two — exposure vector, eight coefficients
hover for source in filingsLCY revenue share~100% EGP
Segment note+ stress
FX-denominated debtLimited
Debt note− hedge
Inventory + rcv daysVery long, instalment book
Working capital schedules+ stress
Import content of COGSFinishing materials
MD&A+ stress
Export shareGulf buyer demand
Sales mix− hedge
Wage baseContractor-linked
Employment noteneutral
Trapped cashLow
Cash restrictions note− hedge
Rate sensitivityHigh on receivables
Instalment disclosure+ stress
Sign convention matters as much as magnitude — an exporter with hard-currency receivables gains from the same move that destroys an importer.
Layer three — diagnosis
An instalment receivable book priced before the corridor moved to 27%. Inflation supports asset values but the discount rate on the receivable stack is the problem.
Country signal in force
CPI YoY
26.4%
Policy rate
27.25%
USD/EGP
48.6
Parallel prem.
+2%
Reserves
$46.4b
Sov. spread
610bp
Ranked lead set
3- 01NowReceivables securitisation
Term out the instalment book and reprice the funding cost.
DCM StructuredLargest ticket - 02NowRate hedges
Cap exposure on the floating construction facility.
MarketsRecurring - 03OngoingGulf buyer FX collection
Cross-border collection rails for non-resident purchasers.
TTSFlow
Timing is the product: the pitch is strongest at computable moments — the quarter a coefficient breaches a threshold, and the month the policy window reopens.